Patch's North Shore Real Estate Guide
Real estate prices plunged during the recession, and now sales agents say buyers have the edge.
In 2006, the housing market flew too close to the sun. And like Icarus with his wings of feather and wax, a previously golden sector of the American economy plummeted to a bloody crash-landing. But real estate agents across the North Shore say that one group has an advantage: buyers.
In the North Shore especially, there's a surplus of houses but a dearth of buyers. That means those who want to move in have the hitherto unusual luxury of being the ones with the power.
"If you're a young person with a steady 9-to-5 job, steady income and you haven't damaged your credit yet, it's a perfect time to buy," said Emery Moorehead, chairman of the North Shore Barrington Association of Realtors and a sales associate in Koenig & Strey's Lake Forest office.
Housing prices have dropped about 28 percent since their peak in the summer of 2006, when banks were handing out high-risk loans without asking for documentation of people's credit scores or debt histories. That, coupled with the fact that the Illinois unemployment rate is down a few percentage points since March 2010, has given buyers the upper hand in what Moorehead called a "perfect storm."
"It was [for] 20 years a seller's market," he said. "But the last five years, it's been a buyer's market. Times have changed."
In these new times, lenders are also ratcheting up their regulations for who qualifies for financing.
"Those who could have afforded a $1 million home five years ago perhaps can only afford [a] $600,000 home now due to lending requirements," said Peter Moulton, @properties' vice president of brokerage services for the North Shore.
Ultimately, Moulton sees that as a positive because it is forcing people to live within their means. That's a sharp contrast to a few years ago, when lenders made it easy for buyers to bury themselves beneath a mountain of debt without much thought about whether they would be pinched in the future. It was a culture of immediate gratification, not a culture of planning ahead.
Now that buyers are coming to the table with less spending power, sellers must price their homes competitively if they want to command interest.
"The consumer needs to see value, and if they do not see value, they will not act," Moulton said.
Buyers should feel empowered, Moulton said, but they should also be loyal to their motivation for moving, whether that's to expand their family, to take advantage of better school districts or even to downsize after retirement.
Above all, he said it's paramount that buyers be in complete control of their finances and not buy more house than they can handle.
"Financial health is wealth," Moulton said. "Long-term happiness is going to be largely dependent on good decision-making financially."
And sound personal decision-making leads to a better local economy.
"What we're helping people realize is that if you buy a home, you're investing in the community," said Chris Smith, the managing broker of Baird & Warner's Evanston office. "If you were to peel the onion back, you'd find that investing in real estate is one of the better investments you can make.
"They're not making any more of it," he added with a laugh.
The North Shore by the numbers
There were 4,059 houses for sale in the North Shore as of March 31, according to Moulton. Last month, 228 deals were closed, giving the area a 5 percent close rate.
Moulton tossed out another important statistic: Of the homes that came on the market at a compelling rate, the average final sale price was 92.25 percent of the asking price. Those houses that needed one or more price adjustments? They sold for 76.81 percent of the readjusted asking price.
"The market will price your home based on what a buyer is willing to pay for it," he noted.
Here's a breakdown of vital stats across the North Shore and its diverse townships, according to Trulia.com, an independent real estate search engine:
- Wilmette – April's average list price: $721,400. Average sale price in the first quarter: $485,000. At the time of publication, there were 272 houses for sale and 93 foreclosures listed.
- Northbrook — April's average list price: $532,800. Average sale price in the first quarter: $295,000. At the time of publication, there were 389 houses for sale and 219 foreclosures listed.
- Lake Forest — April's average list price: $1.59 million. Average sale price in the first quarter: $756,000. At the time of publication, there were 372 houses for sale and 80 foreclosures listed.
- Lake Bluff — April's average list price: $982,000. Average sale price in the first quarter: $335,000. At the time of publication, there were 123 houses for sale and 48 foreclosures listed.
- Deerfield — April's average list price: $516,300. Average sale price in the first quarter: $337,500. At the time of publication, there were 187 houses for sale and 139 foreclosures listed.
- Highland Park – April's average list price: $895,511. Average sale price in the first quarter: $382,500. At the time of publication, there were 393 houses for sale and 138 foreclosures listed.
- Niles — April's average list price: $260,000. Average sale price in the first quarter: $192,750. At the time of publication, there were 165 houses for sale and 225 foreclosures listed.
- Winnetka – April's average list price: $1.85 million. Average sale price in the first quarter: $987,000. At the time of publication, there were 202 houses for sale and 25 foreclosures listed.
- Glenview – April's average list price: $545,000. Average sale price in the first quarter: $420,000. At the time of publication, there were 518 houses for sale and 312 foreclosures listed.
- Morton Grove – April's average list price: $266,000. Average sale price in the first quarter: $225,000. At the time of publication, there were 184 houses for sale and 247 foreclosures listed.
- Des Plaines – April's average list price: $207,000. Average sale price in the first quarter: $125,000. At the time of publication, there were 636 houses for sale and 998 foreclosures listed.
With those hard stats in mind, Patch consulted firms across the North Shore—Koenig & Strey, Baird & Warner, @properties, Coldwell Banker, Prudential Rubloff and others—to find out how both buyers and sellers can get the most out of their transactions.
Five tips for buyers:
- Plan for the future.
What does a home need to offer you? Security? Good schools? More space for a family? "They should be thinking about this in a minimum of three to five years where they see themselves," said Smith of Baird & Warner.
- Take advantage of low rates, and do your homework.
"These rates are [at] historic lows," said Moorehead of Koenig & Strey. He counsels his potential buyers to lock in a long-term loan—possibly a 30-year mortgage with an interest rate below 5 percent.
- Be ready to back up an offer before you get into negotiations.
That includes getting pre-approved by a lender. "It's not what you can afford, it's your credit," said Leslie Stein, a senior vice president with Prudential Rubloff. "If someone has blips in their credit, most loan officers can see what the problem is and have it corrected."
- Get a referral.
Talk to someone who has had a good relationship with the real estate agent before. Take advantage of the Internet. Thanks to online reviews and neighborhood guides, buyers can find plenty of information about both the real estate agent and the community. Said Moorehead: "It's hard to make mistakes if you're Internet savvy."
- Don't live beyond your means.
This is about community health and smart decision-making, not ego or grandiose desires. "If you buy a house based on what you can afford, it's going to appreciate," said Stein of Prudential Rubloff. "And in a few years, you'll be able to afford the bigger house you wanted."
Five tips for sellers:
- Exercise judgment, but the first offer is often a good one.
Sellers have a difficult time accepting it, but a fair offer often comes within the first 30 to 60 days. "If [the buyer] loves it enough to put in an offer, get it done," said Moorehead.
Smith had this advice: "Homes are not like wine when they're on the market. They do not get better with age; they only create a perception in the minds of the buyer that there's a problem or difficulty with the property."
- Create a compelling price right off the bat.
"If you're bringing your home to market, you need to be aggressive about your pricing and addressing any kind of repair issues so that you're one of the top homes in the market," Smith said.
- Be realistic, and keep your emotions out of it.
"They're not buying your memories; they're trying to create their own," Moorehead said.
In the real estate world, there are three prices: What Bill and Jane's house down the street sold for a year ago, what the sales agent comes up with and what someone's willing to pay when they walk through the front door.
"There's no longer this win-win situation where buyers feel great and they get the home they always wanted, and you get the price you always wanted," Smith said. "There's a give and take to get homes to close."
- Presentation is the most practical thing you can control.
De-clutter, de-clutter, de-clutter. Paint. Update appliances. Install new lighting. Presentation is everything in today's market, and prospective buyers can afford to walk away if they can't see themselves at home in your house.
"You want people to see the space in your house, not what you have in your house," Moorehead said.
When painting, go for neutral colors: browns, greens, beiges, blues, off-whites. "You want to be able to allow the potential buyer to see themselves living in the house with their belongings and their lifestyle," said Eve Bremen, the branch manager at Coldwell Banker's Winnetka office.
Point of Agreement
All of the real estate agents interviewed by Patch agreed on this point:
It may sound like common sense, but buyers: Don't buy beyond your means. And sellers? Be realistic about your product.
Helen Larsen
7:43 am on Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Great articel. This is an exellent time to make a move. Lock into very rates to enjoy for a very long time, and get into a great community. Spring has sprung--of the 310 active single family listings in Northbrook 73 or 23.5% have gone under contract since 3/1/11. Buyers are buying, sellers are selling!
Helen Larsen Coldwell Banker
Andrew
12:36 pm on Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Wow. Article gives lots of advice from people who make a living selling houses, but not much advice from those who manage money and protect wealth:
"If you buy a house based on what you can afford, it's going to appreciate," said Stein of Prudential Rubloff. "And in a few years, you'll be able to afford the bigger house you wanted."
Are you kidding?!! In a few years (say, 2014-2019), you'll be lucky if you're house is still worth what you paid for it. With enormous shadow inventory out there, foreclosures still coming online, baby boomers downsizing and a solid oversupply of McMansions, the market has YEARS before it plateaus, much less goes up.
But for the sake of argument, let's say a miracle occurs and home prices stabilize this year. Honestly, does anyone think after half the planet has been burned on real estate prices are going to go UP any time soon? And if your house IS still worth what you paid for it in 5 years, you'll still lose money shelling out 6% in realtor's fees, plus more in legal and other sellers' fees, a chunk of change to pretty up your house for sale and last but not least, a grand or ten to get your stuff moved to a new house.
Currently, prices are down around 2001- 2002 levels. The bubble, depending on who you ask, started between 1997 and 1999-- when people had money and jobs to pay for housing. With unemployment, rising tax rates, stagnant wages, expensive gas, etc. do you really think the downturn will stop when we get to the baseline?
Andrew
12:38 pm on Tuesday, April 26, 2011
One more tip for buyers:
Be ready to walk away from the deal if price is the sticking point. Until the market itself proves otherwise, the house will only be worth less in a year.
Helen Larsen
1:34 pm on Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Andrew,
Your price is well taken. I couldn't agree more with some of your points. However, if you are looking for neighoorhood, schools, etc. with a longer term plan, getting in to a home for today's prices and a fixed rate under 5% that you can hold on to for 30 years and all the added benefits of home ownership, this is possibly one of the best times to buy in a very long time. Rents will surely go up, mortgage payment will be locked in--to say nothing of all the benefits of owning a home that you can make your own and getting involved in a community. I don't know about you, but my investments outside of real estate haven't always brought me a good return for my investment.
What we have learned from what's gone on the past few years is that there is no one shoe fits all approach the real estate investing. Buying a home is not the best thing for everyone. And that's where you and agree. thanks for you comments. Helen
Andrew
2:54 pm on Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Helen,
Thanks for the response. Yes, everyone needs to gauge their own situation and act accordingly.
I would point out that it is absolutely possible to rent in a neighborhood with excellent schools and even get involved in the community without owning a home. In fact, the LA Times just ran an article reporting that many wealthy "house hunters" are opting to do just that.
A 30 year mortgage-- even at a historically low rate-- on a house that's overpriced and losing value is no bargain in the long run. And, particularly in the state of Illinois, but throughout the nation, the old thinking that rent will go up but the price of home ownership remains stable is already being put to the lie by hikes in property taxes that are pushing some seniors right out of the homes they "own."
I have no issue with the idea that everyone needs to decide for themselves based on their own priorities. But for people new to this or just considering their options, I consider one-sided articles that paint a rosy picture of home buying in this environment to be misleading at best and actively harmful at worst.
Andrew
2:56 pm on Tuesday, April 26, 2011
LA Times Article:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-luxury-lease-20110414,0,6883536.story
steve shay
2:10 pm on Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Helen Larsen, If you take a look at Craigslist, you will see that rents have gone down as real estate has gone down. And the market is flooded with rentals. Wood-be renters are either staying put with Mom and Dad, moving back in with the folks, or doubling up, which means renting one apartment, leaving another vacant statistically speaking. Potential renters, like potential buyers, are also anxious about losing their jobs, paying more at the pump, and not getting that raise, let alone the promotion, they once did.
Anecdotally, I believe that singles and couples who, before the recession, could swing a nice $1,200 - $1,600 rental per month are in many cases searching for rentals in the $900 - $1000 range.
steve shay
2:23 pm on Tuesday, April 26, 2011
I meant to say "Would-be" not "Wood-be"
Margaret Mcintyre
7:38 am on Thursday, June 23, 2011
teve, I completely follow your reasoning and agree. More tragic though, is the glut of all housing options (that you observed on Craig's list) in Illinois indicates the 'flight" from the once prosperous state of IL to more prosperous states with employment, such as Texas and other southern non-union states. Craigs list represents the IL housing market. States growing from the "flight" of employable persons or retirees that desire to conserve their life savings, actually have a dearth of rental properties right now. Anyone with some cash (or a few friends or family members can get together to invest) should buy an apartment building in a growing economy. The continuing contraction of housing values in IL reflects the flight out of the state--and (out of Wilmette) that has long term implications. Since 2000, Wilmette's 'white" population has decreased 6%. http://triblocal.com/wilmette-kenilworth/2011/02/15/preliminary-census-data-shows-demographic-changes-in-new-trier/ Even public employees are retiring and taking their TRS payments to lower (tax) cost states.
Margaret Mcintyre
11:36 am on Saturday, June 4, 2011
Helen, all the data is telling me just the opposite, now is NOT the time to buy, especially in Wilmette which just passed a significant school referendum.—meaning property taxes will continue to go up as home values decline. Terrible. If I were a real estate agent, I would 1. buy an apartment building, possibly collaborate with other agents and pool their savings to invest; 2. Only If I was a family with a special needs child, would I move to Wilmette (for the schools)—but I would Rent—as there are more rental homes available than ever before. The annual cost of special education ($15,000-$40,000) just about covers the rent!
“Long term implications of home ownership”, assumes there is a windfall benefit of having a paid off mortgage at retirement time, on a home you own. The problem for Wilmette as we are seeing, is that even if your home is paid off, the high and rising property taxes make it impossible or very risky to remain in Wilmette after retirement. This property tax fact wipes the financial benefits of ownership… for the LONG run.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304563104576361522020024248.html?mod=WSJ_RealEstate_LEADTopNews
Margaret Mcintyre
11:37 am on Saturday, June 4, 2011
As a real estate ‘investment”, multi-dwelling rental properties are the way to go!
WSJ analysis of rent v buy—rents going up and demand going up. The cash flow of rents can continue after retirement.
ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703643104576291124203568038.html
Demographic trends
http://demomemo.blogspot.com/2011/05/census-surprise-more-renters.html
steve shay
12:15 pm on Thursday, June 23, 2011
Margaret Mcintyre says this:
"The continuing contraction of housing values in IL reflects the flight out of the state--and (out of Wilmette) that has long term implications. Since 2000, Wilmette's 'white" population has decreased 6%."
I am not sure why, but I am very uncomfortable with this statement. Please clarify the correlation between the topic at hand, the glut of vacant apartments, and being a non-white.